The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has “determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession”, according to a recently published NBER report.
Although the official definition of a recession is 2 or more consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth, the NBER based part of its finding on the fact that the last quarter of 2007 was negative, followed by 2 quarters with small gains and the 3rd quarter of this year being negative as well.
I’m not sure why it took a panel of scientists almost a year to figure that out!
Anyone who has experienced one or more of the following already knew this:
- Not being able to sell a house
- Not being able to get a loan to buy a house
- Losing 40% of your retirement savings
- Losing your job
Seriously, with the massive loss of wealth from real estate, the stock market, and increasing unemployment, they are really just telling us something we already knew. If we have not actually met the real definition of a recession, it appeared almost certain we were headed there anyway.
And now that it is official, does that change anything?
It seems as if you have been hit directly by the housing market problems, or god forbid, lost your job, you are probably already doing everything you can to stay afloat. If you are lucky enough to have not experienced loss of your job or other effects, you are probably so worried about the “gloom and doom” news from the media that you are just hoping it doesn’t happen to you.
Will the recession being “official” change they way you are doing anything? Will you try to save more and spend less? Or are you already doing all you can?
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